Clubs Outgunning The Prediction

There were a couple of sides I picked out before the season started that I didn’t think would do very well in their particular division. Both were relegated, one on the back of a tumultuous few years where they’ve stumbled and stumbled but seemingly now found the buffers.

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Dover Athletic and Dartford both tumbled out of the National League South last season. Dover were down well before the final day of the season whilst Dartford’s fate was sealed a couple of matches prior to that last day.

Two reasonable size clubs in non-league football you might say, National League size clubs you could also argue but for one reason or another both these sides currently sit two promotions away from hitting that league once again.

Let’s take each one in turn. Athletic have been on the wrong turn since the stop start seasons of the pandemic. Mothballing the club during that period cost Jim Parmenter around £40,000, fined by the National League for not fulfilling their remaining fixtures, citing the club would fold if they didn’t stop playing.

Given a 12 point deduction to begin the following campaign it was no surprise to see them relegated to the National League South having moved back to part-time status and collecting only eight points.

From that point five years ago, the club have followed the downward spiral and have now come to rest at Step 3 in the Isthmian Premier Division. The appointment of Mitch Brundle, a fans favourite at The Crabble didn’t come off, another former Whites player in Jake Leberl returned last season but an impossible task to halt the relegation juggernaut that had engulfed the Kent club.

I had expected Dover to land in mid-table at best, stop the rot of yet another relegation and begin their rebuild in safe-ish fashion. What I didn’t expect was a blistering start to the season that saw them points clear at the top end.

It certainly took more than a few people by surprise and although they’ve been caught by four other sides they’re in the thick of a title race, something unheard of on the Kent coast for a good few years.

They might yet fall away; form has been dipping with only four wins from their last ten outings, but Leberl seems to have steadied the ship sufficiently.

I’m sure anything from about twelfth upwards would have been a good sign for any Dover fan, most resigned to not seeing their side win matches let alone 17 so far from 29 played.

One of those four other sides in the title race are another I tipped to not be troubling the play-off’s either are Dartford. Their relegation last season was quite alarming but goes to show how quickly things can change in football.

Finishing in the play off places the season previous and at one stage looking like upstaging near neighbours Ebbsfleet Utd, they never got going last year and the story throughout the campaign was ‘Dartford are too big to go down’.

But when you drop like a stone in the water and everyone else around you wins games, the inevitable happens. The change in management was too late, Ady Pennock not able to get enough of a bounce to help them survive.

I watched the Darts at fellow strugglers Havant & Waterlooville a few games before the end of the season and they looked very impressive against their hosts, had they replicated that more often potentially they didn’t finish in the bottom four.

But their fall from play-off grace was complete a game or two before the final day, down they went with Dover and a complete ship out of the squad. I didn’t believe Pennock was the right choice, five years out of the UK game in Brunei but a reasonable track record prior to that, but so far he’s doing a great job of proving me wrong.

They started slowly this season, justifying my middle of the road prediction, but they have blazed their way through the campaign to currently lead the table on a 17 match unbeaten run, a solitary goal clear but points level with Billericay Town.

Nine straight wins has propelled them to the top, at a time when Dover are finding form hard to come by, but there is little room for error. The top five are currently clear of the rest by some six points, the top four are separated by just two points.

Pennock so far has really proved me wrong, which is what I like clubs, players, managers to do when it comes to predictions. He’s put together a very decent squad of players and they’re close as a club to averaging 1000 people through the gate, excellent numbers for the level.

They might yet drop off over the coming weeks, as per Dover have, whose to say. Every time has to blip at some point, did theirs come early however and now it’s all about momentum?

Either way, whatever happens between now and the end of the season both clubs so far have outperformed on what I expected and just goes to show, never judge a book by its cover alone.